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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article26 August 2024989 views
Beyond the summer turbulence in risk assets, the main development in recent weeks has been the resurgence of the Democrats in the US presidential race. In this report, we explore the market implications of such turnaround and find that…
Article6 August 20241105 views
Stormy times for markets. Global equity markets took a nosedive in the final two days of last week, with the S&P 500 sliding 3% and the Nasdaq and Stoxx Europe 600 declining by 4%. Still, the most striking feature of recent turbulences…
Article30 July 20241162 views
Micro meets macro? As the earnings season gains momentum, we note that micro level trends are starting to mirror the broader macroeconomic shifts that have been brewing for some time. Cooling inflation is now being reflected in the pricing…
Article23 July 20241063 views
The Paris Olympics will get underway at the end of the week amid an unusually gloomy mood. Not only has tourism been a disaster in June, but everyone is holding their breath, awaiting the back-to-school season with some wariness, and…
Article15 July 20241142 views
A new beginning. With political risks increasingly in check in France and US inflation surprising on the downside, there is room for a reversal in recent trends, which saw US big-tech equities driving global markets to an extraordinary…
Article8 July 20241227 views
Macron has managed to contain Marine Le Pen’s far-right party from taking the helm of France. While after the first round a week ago, it seemed this scenario was inevitable, the republican front formed by the centrists and left bloc has…
Article1 July 20241256 views
What is going on in French politics? After heated political debates on this side of the Atlantic as well, the first round of the French legislative election confirmed the rise of the far-right (33.1%) in a context of high turn-out (67.5%).…
Article24 June 20241260 views
At this point in time, you are probably fed up with French elections and the associated market uncertainty. Yet, we cannot elude the topic one week ahead of the historical election that is likely to put the far-right in the driving seat.…
Article17 June 20241403 views
On top of geopolitics and inflation concerns, now investors have to deal with another layer of complexity: renewed concerns about fragmentation risk in the euro area. Basically, it comes down to the idea that a security issued in euros in…
Article14 June 20241677 views
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is a type of short-term financing that allows consumers to make purchases and pay for them later, often interest-free. On Monday, we learned that iPhones and iPads will soon be integrated into Affirm's "buy now,…
Article11 June 20241167 views
The outcome of the EU elections has triggered a rise in risk aversion in Europe in equity, bond, and also FX markets, with President Macron calling snap parliamentary elections for early July. The markets are basically pricing in the…
Article3 June 20241268 views
Many aspects of the market and economy bring to mind the principles of yin and yang: the West versus the East; some economic activities flourishing while others in recession; rich consumers versus poor; and deflation in some areas and…
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