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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article25 November 20241256 views
The impossible trinity is a theory in international economics which states that it is impossible to have, at the same time, a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement and independent monetary policy. A good illustration of its validity…
Article18 November 2024995 views
This provocative title actually refers to a book that was published 20 years ago by the famous German economist Hans-Werner Sinn, then President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. At that time, in the early 2000s, he questioned…
Article11 November 20241017 views
This is it. Donald Trump just made “the biggest comeback in American history”. What surprises us at first hand is the extent to which polls underestimated the popular vote in favour of Donald Trump or, alternatively, overestimated the…
Article28 October 2024947 views
The US elections are approaching fast and if there is one sure thing, it is that uncertainty is high… Trump now has a very small lead in every swing state, and markets have been increasingly pricing in a Trump win, with Treasury yields and…
Article21 October 2024933 views
In recent weeks, fast-changing market conditions have proved challenging for investors’ nerves, though the major equity indices remain positively oriented. Investors have had to digest the rise and fall in oil prices according to the…
Article14 October 2024945 views
Recent weeks have seen a significant repricing of Fed rate cut expectations. Until recently, expectations were tilted towards the likelihood of a soft landing, while the news flow actually brought better economic data in the US, the…
Article7 October 20241175 views
With the US presidential election getting closer by the day, tensions in the Middle East are now rising precipitously, which adds another layer of complexity. Over the past two weeks, there has been a significant escalation in the conflict…
Article30 September 20241060 views
As September 2024 ends, it could be remembered as a turning point for China’s longest deflationary streak since 1999. Last week we explained in our weekly that the “Fed going big” offered the optionality to the rest of the world to follow…
Article23 September 2024976 views
The Fed initiated its rate cut cycle with a bang and we explore in this report the broader market implications. Last week, Jay Powell adeptly managed a very difficult communication exercise. Going big, i.e. cutting rates by 50 bps, carried…
Article16 September 20241023 views
Like the legend of the Phoenix, all ends with beginnings ( Get Lucky ). After a volatile summer, US equities have regained strength in recent days, pushing global equity markets close to their mid-July highs. All of a sudden, fears have…
Article9 September 20241081 views
Market conditions have remained volatile since early September, as investors reassess the risk that the US economy ends up experiencing a sharper slowdown than expected. Weak job creation in the past two months has raised fears that…
Article2 September 20241084 views
After the Jackson Hole gathering a week ago, markets were looking to Nvidia as the next big catalyst. But in the end, neither Nvidia nor Jay Powell moved markets very much after a positive string of macro data points sent goldilocks vibes…
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