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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article10 February 2025937 views
Last week was intense for investors as Trump fired his first tariff salvo against Canada, Mexico, and China, while threatening Europe. Interestingly, a week later, equity markets have barely moved and US10Y rates ended slightly down for…
Article5 February 2025830 views
Trump rattled global markets in announcing trade tariffs last Friday. He threatened Mexico and Canada with 25% additional trade tariffs on goods (except for Canadian oil products at 10%); and China with 10% additional tariffs. Europe was…
Article27 January 2025905 views
Is the tide turning in Europe? Overseas investors will probably need to see more good news before turning positive on European equities. But preliminary PMIs released last week in the euro area point to improving business conditions in…
Article20 January 2025901 views
In a context where US inflation came in below expectations for December, bond markets rebounded after difficult weeks which saw 10-year Treasury yields approaching the 5% psychological threshold. The relief in bond yields also took place…
Article13 January 2025852 views
As we start the year, uncertainty regarding the policies that will be implemented by Trump and their effects on inflation is worrying markets, not only because of Trump's unpredictable and impulsive nature but also due to the lack of…
Article16 December 20241174 views
This is our last weekly report of 2024. We thank you warmly for your support and interest throughout this year and wish you a relaxing break. As we head into the end of the year, it is the right time to take some perspective about past…
Article9 December 20241149 views
Long gone are the days of inflation worries. Amid the political transition in the US and instability in the euro area, central banks will meet in the coming days for another round of rate cuts. This will likely be the fourth rate cut for…
Article2 December 20241350 views
More than a decade ago, southern Europe was facing a decisive moment, which eventually led to the Greek sovereign default and debt restructuring in 2012. But it also led to deeper EU integration and some form of debt mutualization. In…
Article25 November 20241346 views
The impossible trinity is a theory in international economics which states that it is impossible to have, at the same time, a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement and independent monetary policy. A good illustration of its validity…
Article18 November 20241065 views
This provocative title actually refers to a book that was published 20 years ago by the famous German economist Hans-Werner Sinn, then President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. At that time, in the early 2000s, he questioned…
Article11 November 20241093 views
This is it. Donald Trump just made “the biggest comeback in American history”. What surprises us at first hand is the extent to which polls underestimated the popular vote in favour of Donald Trump or, alternatively, overestimated the…
Article28 October 20241023 views
The US elections are approaching fast and if there is one sure thing, it is that uncertainty is high… Trump now has a very small lead in every swing state, and markets have been increasingly pricing in a Trump win, with Treasury yields and…
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