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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article17 March 2025834 views
The late Benjamin Graham used to say that “the market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism”. Although the price tag for the renewed trade uncertainty is not so elevated (S&P 500 -8%,…
Article10 March 20251038 views
Tempers are flaring. After Vice-President JD Vance has launched a scalding attack on European democracies, they are answering. The title of our report echoes a speech delivered last week by a French Senator that has gone viral on both…
Article24 February 2025870 views
A month after Donald Trump’s inauguration, we look at how assets have performed since he won the elections and discuss the Chinese surprise. Many market developments have unfolded as written in the “Trump trade” playbook, but there have…
Article17 February 2025913 views
The announcement that the US administration was conducting peace negotiations with Russia on Ukraine came as a surprise. It was not so much the fact that Trump wants to stop the war in Ukraine – he was vocal about that during the electoral…
Article10 February 2025868 views
Last week was intense for investors as Trump fired his first tariff salvo against Canada, Mexico, and China, while threatening Europe. Interestingly, a week later, equity markets have barely moved and US10Y rates ended slightly down for…
Article5 February 2025757 views
Trump rattled global markets in announcing trade tariffs last Friday. He threatened Mexico and Canada with 25% additional trade tariffs on goods (except for Canadian oil products at 10%); and China with 10% additional tariffs. Europe was…
Article27 January 2025838 views
Is the tide turning in Europe? Overseas investors will probably need to see more good news before turning positive on European equities. But preliminary PMIs released last week in the euro area point to improving business conditions in…
Article20 January 2025831 views
In a context where US inflation came in below expectations for December, bond markets rebounded after difficult weeks which saw 10-year Treasury yields approaching the 5% psychological threshold. The relief in bond yields also took place…
Article13 January 2025776 views
As we start the year, uncertainty regarding the policies that will be implemented by Trump and their effects on inflation is worrying markets, not only because of Trump's unpredictable and impulsive nature but also due to the lack of…
Article16 December 20241099 views
This is our last weekly report of 2024. We thank you warmly for your support and interest throughout this year and wish you a relaxing break. As we head into the end of the year, it is the right time to take some perspective about past…
Article9 December 20241067 views
Long gone are the days of inflation worries. Amid the political transition in the US and instability in the euro area, central banks will meet in the coming days for another round of rate cuts. This will likely be the fourth rate cut for…
Article2 December 20241274 views
More than a decade ago, southern Europe was facing a decisive moment, which eventually led to the Greek sovereign default and debt restructuring in 2012. But it also led to deeper EU integration and some form of debt mutualization. In…
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