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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article12 May 20251090 views
Trade war détente to assuage market concerns. White smoke poured from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel last week. But it also came out of the White House chimney. In effect, the UK eventually clinched the first trade deal with the US…
Article5 May 2025932 views
The rebound in US equities has been almost as fast as the drawdown in early April, suggesting that too much pessimism was priced in. Macro data releases and the ongoing earnings season have been supportive, with no signs of a significant…
Article29 April 20251021 views
Our “Make Europe Great Again” or MEGA selection - ( see article on March 28) outperforms the Stoxx600 thanks to several factors: German recovery plan: The 500 billion euro plan continues to stimulate investments in infrastructure and…
Article28 April 2025888 views
In recent days and weeks, Trump has signalled a willingness to compromise on trade tariffs , which fuelled a market rebound. Press clips showing how Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick (Treasury and Commerce Secretary, respectively) managed…
Quarterly9 April 2025936 views
The first quarter of 2025 was marked by the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, who implemented deregulation measures and increased customs duties in several countries, including China and the European Union.…
Article7 April 2025918 views
Managing uncertainty is at the core of the process of investing. Last week, Trump unveiled new trade tariffs on the so-called “Liberation Day”, taking investors into uncharted territory. The Economist rebranded it “Ruination Day”: equities…
Article28 March 20251958 views
How to position yourself in the context of the European Economic Revival In a scenario of reallocation of investment flows towards European stocks deemed undervalued following the overperformance of American stocks, some analysts are…
Article24 March 2025949 views
Apart from some exotic commodities like coffee, gold has been the best performing asset year to date, up 15% as we go to press. With rising trade uncertainties and a higher (though still low) probability of a recession in the US, this…
Article17 March 2025892 views
The late Benjamin Graham used to say that “the market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism”. Although the price tag for the renewed trade uncertainty is not so elevated (S&P 500 -8%,…
Article10 March 20251096 views
Tempers are flaring. After Vice-President JD Vance has launched a scalding attack on European democracies, they are answering. The title of our report echoes a speech delivered last week by a French Senator that has gone viral on both…
Article24 February 2025933 views
A month after Donald Trump’s inauguration, we look at how assets have performed since he won the elections and discuss the Chinese surprise. Many market developments have unfolded as written in the “Trump trade” playbook, but there have…
Article17 February 2025988 views
The announcement that the US administration was conducting peace negotiations with Russia on Ukraine came as a surprise. It was not so much the fact that Trump wants to stop the war in Ukraine – he was vocal about that during the electoral…
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