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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
We are launching our Thematic Alpha
4 August 2026
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Article5 May 2026951 views
The announcement of the German stimulus plan generated high expectations in European markets. Several months after its launch, this is a moment to assess its early impact. We believe that the German stimulus plan remains structurally…
Article30 April 2026505 views
While the spectacular rebound in US equities has been the main focus of attention since the start of April (S&P 500: +12.4%), the rally has not been confined to the United States. Taken as a whole, emerging markets have also shifted back…
Article22 April 2026482 views
Dear reader, we will take a short break. Your weekly report will return in early May with fresh ideas to help position portfolios, hopefully in calmer waters. Geopolitics keeps markets in check. Crude oil has remained volatile in recent…
Article21 April 20261031 views
Two conflicts, one lesson. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a considerable share of the world's oil flows, serve as a reminder that global energy routes are fragile, and that a single point of friction is enough to…
Article15 April 2026456 views
Albeit with some initial hiccups, the ceasefire in the Middle East is holding, and peace negotiations are ongoing. This has been reassuring for markets: both equities and bonds have rebounded in recent days, reinforcing our Overweight…
Article9 April 2026538 views
A relief rally. Following the ceasefire agreed by Iran, Israel and the US on 7 April, markets have staged a sharp rebound across equities, bonds, gold and, more broadly, all assets that had been heavily sold in recent weeks. While this…
Article8 April 20261222 views
In an environment marked by rising geopolitical tensions and volatility across European markets, our “Thematic Alpha” strategy has shown notable resilience, while preparing the ground for attractive investment opportunities. Defensive…
Quarterly2 April 2026763 views
Q1 2026 initially looked like a fairly constructive phase of cyclical reacceleration across the major developed economies , underpinned by a stabilizing U.S. labor market, an industrial upturn in Europe, and a modest return of momentum in…
Article31 March 2026471 views
Preliminary signs of de-escalation at the start of last week ultimately proved misleading, and the conflict in the Middle East continues to intensify. Our base case still assumes a near-term resolution, as it remains in the interest of all…
Article23 March 2026565 views
Attacks on energy infrastructure last week marked a serious escalation in the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, memories of 2022, when inflation climbed to multiple-decade highs, have forced central banks to communicate on the possibility…
Article17 March 2026518 views
A wave of optimism fueled a rebound in both equities and bonds yesterday, as WTI fell toward $95/b. However, it remains to be seen whether this momentum can be sustained. For now, there are no concrete signs of conflict de-escalation in…
Article9 March 2026549 views
The war between the US/Israel and Iran is entering its second week. Markets are increasingly concerned about the risk of oil and gas supply disruptions, as an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have major repercussions for the…
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