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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article30 September 2025763 views
Muddying the waters While we have turned less aggressive on risky assets during the summer due to the cooling job market in the US, data releases are sending mixed signals. Job creation has vanished, but consumers continue to spend,…
Article23 September 2025776 views
For once, we will not be dealing with macro strategy in our weekly report. Last week was packed with macro events, from central bank meetings (Fed, BoE, and BoJ) to the usual Trump headlines (call with Xi, UK state visit). But none of…
Article15 September 2025804 views
Key insights from our autumn conference with 220 corporates. Two dominant themes emerged throughout the conference: diversification and the French political situation, both for obvious reasons. European sovereignty was also a recurring…
Article9 September 2025713 views
In this weekly report, we explore five key themes that, in our view, will shape market dynamics over the coming months. The implications of trade tariffs on the global economy loom large (themes #1 to #3). But overall, it is increasingly…
Article1 September 2025884 views
Autumn is knocking at our door. In our first weekly note after the summer break, we summarise the main takeaways and discuss the outlook. Summer recap Fundamentally, the summer has been free of nasty surprises capable of derailing risk…
Article11 August 20251060 views
The dollar has experienced a turbulent 2025. After reaching record highs in January in the wake of Trump’s reelection, the greenback reversed sharply, to the point of experiencing its worst first half of a year since 1973, losing just over…
Article11 August 2025894 views
The bearish mood that started to take shape in early August was overshadowed by rising optimism regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine. Following what the US president described as highly productive talks in Moscow between his special envoy and…
Article5 August 2025937 views
Equity volatility picked up at the end of last week on the back of a higher probability of recession in the US and renewed trade fears. With the great confusion caused by the implementation of US trade tariffs and last-minute deals, market…
Article28 July 2025945 views
Trump and von der Leyen reportedly reached an asymmetrical trade agreement —like Japan’s—over the weekend. The trade negotiations leave a bitter aftertaste, as the US will impose a 15% trade tariff on most of the EU’s exports, including…
Article21 July 2025999 views
A supportive preliminary earnings picture. The earnings season is about to get into full swing, and preliminary insights are reassuring. With about 10% of the companies in the S&P 500 and STOXX Europe 600 having reported, the (very)…
Article15 July 20251134 views
It’s been nearly a year since President Macron dissolved parliament, plunging France into political uncertainty with no clear majority emerging. What’s the situation now – and which investment opportunities in France? We’re regularly asked…
Article10 July 20251017 views
In recent months, Argentina has taken another step forward in its economic reforms. Progress is becoming more evident, and the peso has been freed from a strict foreign exchange control regime. Capital controls have been largely eased, and…
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