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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
Thematic Alpha AMC: A Dynamic and Resilient Strategy
15 June 2026
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Quarterly8 July 20251063 views
In the second quarter of 2025, the global economy was dominated by persistent trade tensions, monetary policy adjustments and a still fragile economic recovery. The Trump administration reignited the trade war with China imposing tariffs…
Article7 July 2025644 views
The deadline for President Trump's tariffs is fast approaching, with the 90-day pause set to expire on July 9. It will be a test for the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out), which supported risk assets in the last quarter. As we go to…
Article30 June 2025840 views
A single word is enough to stop the wind. Market sentiment is prone to flip-flops, much like the US administration. The pace at which the news flow has changed is impressive. Just a week ago, we were deeply concerned about an escalation in…
Article23 June 2025722 views
Over the weekend, US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities further escalated tensions in the Middle East, heightening the risk of retaliation. In response, Iran's parliament voted to support closing the Strait of Hormuz, though the…
Article17 June 2025818 views
2025 marks a decisive turning point for the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Long hampered by costs about three times higher than those of conventional kerosene, their use has until now been based on voluntary commitments.…
Article16 June 2025789 views
Oil prices have returned to centre stage in markets following Israel’s strikes on Iran last week, adding a fresh layer of uncertainty to stagflationary risks. A prolonged rally in oil prices could indeed translate into renewed concerns…
Article10 June 2025734 views
The restrictive monetary stance has come to an end in the euro area. As expected, the ECB cut rates by 25bps last week for the fourth time this year, bringing the deposit rate to 2%. The ECB has been one of the most aggressive central…
Article3 June 2025735 views
The ECB governing council will meet this week, and we expect them to cut policy rates by 25bps for the fourth time this year. This will bring the deposit rate to 2%. Inflation is actually receding fast to the ECB target, at 1.9% in May…
Article26 May 2025946 views
Half-way through Trump’s 90-day grace period for reciprocal tariffs, trade negotiations appear to be stalling, and markets are getting nervous, again. Trump is losing patience and threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods at the end of…
Article20 May 2025901 views
Renalco has introduced a new free subscription service aimed at providing timely and relevant financial insights . Through this service, subscribers will receive a Monthly Digest featuring a curated selection of articles published on our…
Article19 May 2025949 views
The relief rally has legs. US equities continued to outperform last week, supported by reassuring macroeconomic and corporate earnings releases. Despite the adverse effects of trade-related uncertainty, which have pundits on alert for a…
Article12 May 2025931 views
Trade war détente to assuage market concerns. White smoke poured from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel last week. But it also came out of the White House chimney. In effect, the UK eventually clinched the first trade deal with the US…
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