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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article21 October 2025798 views
Credit risks in the US are keeping markets on edge. Concerns about the US regional banks' creditworthiness caused some market jitters last week. The KBW regional banking index was down 6.3% in a single day, after two banks (Zions Bancorp…
Article14 October 2025558 views
Markets took a hammering last Friday as Trump reignited trade wars with China after the Chinese authorities announced export controls on rare earths earlier in the week. On Friday, short-dated VIX futures spiked, the S&P 500 was down…
Article6 October 2025648 views
Growing contrast between the macro backdrop and the market On the one hand, the US government shutdown, the job market slowdown, and the consumer confidence decline call for some caution on richly valued US equities. In Europe, there is no…
Quarterly3 October 2025738 views
Rate Cuts, Record Highs, and Resilient Growth: Navigating Q3’s Crosswinds Renalco’s Q3 2025 review offers a sharp, forward-looking analysis of global financial markets in a quarter marked by cautious optimism, monetary easing, and…
Article30 September 2025701 views
Muddying the waters While we have turned less aggressive on risky assets during the summer due to the cooling job market in the US, data releases are sending mixed signals. Job creation has vanished, but consumers continue to spend,…
Article23 September 2025713 views
For once, we will not be dealing with macro strategy in our weekly report. Last week was packed with macro events, from central bank meetings (Fed, BoE, and BoJ) to the usual Trump headlines (call with Xi, UK state visit). But none of…
Article15 September 2025741 views
Key insights from our autumn conference with 220 corporates. Two dominant themes emerged throughout the conference: diversification and the French political situation, both for obvious reasons. European sovereignty was also a recurring…
Article9 September 2025652 views
In this weekly report, we explore five key themes that, in our view, will shape market dynamics over the coming months. The implications of trade tariffs on the global economy loom large (themes #1 to #3). But overall, it is increasingly…
Article1 September 2025812 views
Autumn is knocking at our door. In our first weekly note after the summer break, we summarise the main takeaways and discuss the outlook. Summer recap Fundamentally, the summer has been free of nasty surprises capable of derailing risk…
Article11 August 2025999 views
The dollar has experienced a turbulent 2025. After reaching record highs in January in the wake of Trump’s reelection, the greenback reversed sharply, to the point of experiencing its worst first half of a year since 1973, losing just over…
Article11 August 2025834 views
The bearish mood that started to take shape in early August was overshadowed by rising optimism regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine. Following what the US president described as highly productive talks in Moscow between his special envoy and…
Article5 August 2025873 views
Equity volatility picked up at the end of last week on the back of a higher probability of recession in the US and renewed trade fears. With the great confusion caused by the implementation of US trade tariffs and last-minute deals, market…
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