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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Quarterly6 January 20261286 views
The fourth quarter of 2025 was dominated by an atypical sequence of events: the US government shutdown, the resumption of official economic data releases, and then another interest rate cut by the Fed in December. Meanwhile, Europe…
Article15 December 2025852 views
In our view, the sharp fall in oil prices and the strong euro appreciation in 2025 will have negative implications for inflation next year. Also, services could be the next shoe to drop. The CPI services, which represents 45% of the total…
Article9 December 2025763 views
As always at this time of year, we start collecting ideas for Christmas gifts and setting out our main convictions for the year to come. Part of the exercise consists of finding a title that sums up the views in a few words. Last year, we…
Article24 November 2025684 views
A more volatile market setting, and this is not a bad thing. After hitting record highs in late October, US and European equities have faced downward pressure. VIX futures spiked as investors grew cautious about AI and Tech valuations.…
Article18 November 2025756 views
The affordability crisis among mass US consumers came back to bite Donald Trump in the recent elections that took place in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia. Without being overwhelmingly disastrous for the Republicans, according to…
Article10 November 2025917 views
After several months of strong positive returns, global equities are taking a breather. US and European indices reached an all-time high in late October and are experiencing a mild pullback as we speak. Against a backdrop of rich US market…
Article3 November 2025754 views
As we approach year-end, we take a fresh look at the current market dynamics. Another strong earnings season in the US Tech and Consumer Discretionary sectors (Google, Apple, Amazon) has helped to sustain global risk appetite, fuelling…
Article29 October 2025805 views
Reflecting current dynamics in the newsflow, we emphasise four core convictions in our weekly report. #1: Trump’s tour of Asia. Highlighting the major role of the Asia-Pacific region in the world economy, Donald Trump has kicked off his…
Article21 October 2025917 views
Credit risks in the US are keeping markets on edge. Concerns about the US regional banks' creditworthiness caused some market jitters last week. The KBW regional banking index was down 6.3% in a single day, after two banks (Zions Bancorp…
Article14 October 2025665 views
Markets took a hammering last Friday as Trump reignited trade wars with China after the Chinese authorities announced export controls on rare earths earlier in the week. On Friday, short-dated VIX futures spiked, the S&P 500 was down…
Article6 October 2025727 views
Growing contrast between the macro backdrop and the market On the one hand, the US government shutdown, the job market slowdown, and the consumer confidence decline call for some caution on richly valued US equities. In Europe, there is no…
Quarterly3 October 2025828 views
Rate Cuts, Record Highs, and Resilient Growth: Navigating Q3’s Crosswinds Renalco’s Q3 2025 review offers a sharp, forward-looking analysis of global financial markets in a quarter marked by cautious optimism, monetary easing, and…
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