Quarterly Review of Financial Markets and Outlook Q3/2025
191 Friday, 3 October 2025 16:18
Rate Cuts, Record Highs, and Resilient Growth: Navigating Q3’s Crosswinds
Renalco’s Q3 2025 review offers a sharp, forward-looking analysis of global financial markets in a quarter marked by cautious optimism, monetary easing, and geopolitical tension.
Macroeconomics
- The Fed resumes rate cuts to support the job market despite persistent inflation.
- The ECB holds steady, while the UK faces persistent inflation and policy hesitation.
- China launches an “anti-involution” campaign to stabilize prices; India counters U.S. tariffs with fiscal easing.
- Japan regains momentum despite political instability; Switzerland braces for external shocks.
Bond Markets
- U.S. 10-year yields flirt with 4% as growth holds firm.
- European spreads widen amid debt concerns and political risk.
- Credit spreads tighten to historic lows, even amid record issuance.
Equities
- Wall Street hits new highs: S&P 500 +8.1%, Nasdaq 100 +9.0%.
- AI and tech giants dominate, with Nvidia, Tesla, Oracle and Intel leading the charge.
- Valuations stretch to dot-com levels, but investor sentiment remains exuberant.
Commodities
- Brent under pressure as supply outpaces demand.
- Gold and silver soar (+16.4% and +29.1%).
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