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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article4 December 20233648 views
Some weeks ago, we released the first episode of this series in which we expressed our bullish stance on bonds. Since then, we had to put this view on mute temporarily, to take tactical positions on the spectacular equity market rebound…
Article27 November 20233426 views
Israel and Hamas have agreed on a temporary ceasefire as we go to press, which is a reason to celebrate with this solo jazz piano masterpiece from Bill Evans ( Peace Piece ). From an investment perspective, this is also a positive…
Article20 November 20233638 views
We all heard “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” fable from Aesop about a young boy falsely claiming that a wolf is attacking the villages’ sheeps. Villagers became skeptical and did not come to his rescue when the wolf did come for real. In our…
Article13 November 20232653 views
The Fed’s cat-and-mouse game with markets will get a reality check this week with the October CPI print. The game goes as follows: 1) the equity market rebound in early November was fuelled by lower yields at the long end of the curve;…
Article6 November 20232002 views
USD76bn is not a small amount. This is the downward revision of the US Treasury issuance programme for Q4, (from USD852bn to USD776bn, link ). In relative terms, this is nonetheless relatively minor, as it represents less than 4% of the…
Article23 October 20232024 views
The title of our report is inspired by Stanley Kubrick’s fantastic 1964 film Dr. Strangelove, which satirises Cold War fears of a nuclear conflict between the US and the Soviet Union. The film remains highly relevant today in the context…
Article16 October 20232288 views
Our views on equities have been constructive throughout 2023. But in the wake of the bond market selloff in September, we switched from equities to govies. In this report, we elaborate on the reasons why we believe the bond market selloff…
Article9 October 20231964 views
We started the year with fears of recession, and we enter Q4-2023 with fears of overheating. As usual, developments in the US are decisive for global markets, as Europe and China are decelerating. In the meantime, investors continue to…
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