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CIO Flash Notes · Michel Schiffelholz
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4 August 2026
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Article12 February 20242308 views
The US guitarist John Mayer has a great song called “Stop this train” singing “I can’t take the speed it’s moving in”. That must sound familiar! In today’s weekly, we thus ask ourselves what can stop this (US) long train running, led by…
Article5 February 20242120 views
Markets are looking for new catalysts after a busy end to the month. Powell in the first FOMC meeting of 2024 said higher for a “few weeks” longer, and there has been some mixed price action post big tech earnings (Alphabet). But it did…
Article29 January 20241954 views
Newly released information on the US economy suggests a recession is still a distant or unlikely threat. But we don’t expect the good news on the economy to alter the Fed’s marginally dovish stance adopted in December as we head into the…
Article22 January 20242024 views
Christine Lagarde had a difficult start. Our Italian friends all remember her gaffe on spreads. Back then, she described herself as willing to be an “owl” rather than a hawk or a dove, as an owl is “associated with a little bit of wisdom”.…
Article15 January 20242083 views
As we start 2024, everyone has recovered their senses (hopefully!) and the observations that come to mind are fourfold. First, the resilience theme in the US remains alive. A robust labour market and excess savings accumulated during the…
Article8 January 20242020 views
We wish you all a happy and prosperous year 2024! Have you ever left out a glass of milk for Santa Claus on Christmas Eve with your kids? Naturally, the glass of milk would still be full the next morning if you didn’t drink it on Santa’s…
Article11 December 20233975 views
There is always a psychological barrier when you get close to record highs, and equity markets in Europe and the US are now just 3-5% short of early 2002 levels, when interest rates were at 0%. One associated question is how long it will…
Article6 December 20234485 views
Despite the improvement in the Caixin China General Service PMI, the Chinese market continues to face challenges. In November 2023, the PMI increased to 51.5 from 50.4 in the previous month, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth in…
Article4 December 20233819 views
Some weeks ago, we released the first episode of this series in which we expressed our bullish stance on bonds. Since then, we had to put this view on mute temporarily, to take tactical positions on the spectacular equity market rebound…
Article27 November 20233597 views
Israel and Hamas have agreed on a temporary ceasefire as we go to press, which is a reason to celebrate with this solo jazz piano masterpiece from Bill Evans ( Peace Piece ). From an investment perspective, this is also a positive…
Article20 November 20233809 views
We all heard “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” fable from Aesop about a young boy falsely claiming that a wolf is attacking the villages’ sheeps. Villagers became skeptical and did not come to his rescue when the wolf did come for real. In our…
Article13 November 20232786 views
The Fed’s cat-and-mouse game with markets will get a reality check this week with the October CPI print. The game goes as follows: 1) the equity market rebound in early November was fuelled by lower yields at the long end of the curve;…
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