Recent weeks have seen a significant repricing of Fed rate cut expectations. Until recently, expectations were tilted towards the likelihood of a soft landing, while the news flow actually brought better economic data in the US, the...
With the US presidential election getting closer by the day, tensions in the Middle East are now rising precipitously, which adds another layer of complexity. Over the past two weeks, there has been a significant escalation in the conflict...
As September 2024 ends, it could be remembered as a turning point for China’s longest deflationary streak since 1999. Last week we explained in our weekly that the “Fed going big” offered the optionality to the rest of...
The Fed initiated its rate cut cycle with a bang and we explore in this report the broader market implications. Last week, Jay Powell adeptly managed a very difficult communication exercise. Going big, i.e. cutting rates by 50 bps, carried...
Like the legend of the Phoenix, all ends with beginnings (Get Lucky). After a volatile summer, US equities have regained strength in recent days, pushing global equity markets close to their mid-July highs. All of a sudden, fears have...
Market conditions have remained volatile since early September, as investors reassess the risk that the US economy ends up experiencing a sharper slowdown than expected. Weak job creation in the past two months has raised fears that...