The third quarter of 2026 showed that June’s oil pullback was only a temporary respite. From July onwards, the collapse of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, the renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi threat to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait pushed Brent from around $73 to nearly $100 per barrel (+39% over the quarter).
But the shock hit a very different economy from the one seen in the spring: far from stalling, activity reaccelerated across most developed economies, with PMI surveys reaching their highest levels since 2022 in the US and in more than three years in the euro area. Strong growth and renewed energy-driven inflation prompted central banks to tighten policy.
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, the ECB delivered its second hike of the year and the BoJ tightened twice in three months. Bond markets paid the price, with the US 30-year yield hitting its highest level since 2004 and the Bund its highest since 2009.
Equities held up thanks to still-spectacular earnings growth, although the summer brought some questions around artificial intelligence back to the surface.
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