Investment universe
A thematic universe with alpha potential
The Structural themes reshaping the global economy.
August 2026
Universe
The Conviction Universe
as of 14/08/2026
Europe’s transition towards enhanced strategic autonomy and industrial relocation, supported by German fiscal stimulus measures and established European mid-cap champions.
European SovereigntySMIDsGerman StimulusEuropean ConsolidationThe electrification chain: nuclear revival, regulated networks and grid infrastructure, addressing rising electricity demand from AI and data centres.
UtilitiesElectric InfraNuclearDefensive positioning in demographics-benefiting healthcare sectors now at attractive valuations following 2025 headwinds.
HealthcareQuality sector where post-Covid headwinds are cyclical rather than structural. Recent pricing stability and strengthening consumer demand signal a recovery phase in the sector.
LuxuryAlpha
Europe’s transition towards enhanced strategic autonomy and industrial relocation, supported by German fiscal stimulus measures and established European mid-cap champions.
The electrification chain: nuclear revival, regulated networks and grid infrastructure, addressing rising electricity demand from AI and data centres.
Defensive positioning in demographics-benefiting healthcare sectors now at attractive valuations following 2025 headwinds.
Quality sector where post-Covid headwinds are cyclical rather than structural. Recent pricing stability and strengthening consumer demand signal a recovery phase in the sector.
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European Sovereignty
The Draghi roadmap centres on five key sectors at the heart of Europe’s autonomy agenda.
Europe has a plan. Three structural priorities are now in motion: closing the innovation gap, decarbonizing the economy and reducing strategic dependencies. For each pillar, dedicated plans and acts are moving from diagnosis to execution.
SMIDs
European SMIDs trade at a relative forward P/E near multi-decade lows versus large caps, weighed down by massive flows into mega-caps. Quality companies thus trade at a discount to intrinsic value.
On average, SMIDs tend to carry a higher share of domestic revenue than large caps, though the segment is far from uniform and includes a number of highly international names. Domestically focused SMIDs are better positioned to benefit from European stimulus.
Across cycles, small and mid caps have historically outperformed large caps over the long run, with the widest spreads recorded in the recovery phase that follows downturns. Earnings tend to inflect earliest in the segment as rate cycles turn. The current set-up is consistent with prior inflection points that preceded extended periods of relative outperformance.
Utilities
European climate commitments are accelerating clean-energy and grid investment, supporting regulated asset base growth.
AI, cloud computing and data centers are driving a structural rise in electricity demand, placing energy companies and grid operators at the core of this transformation — the essential infrastructure of Europe’s digital revolution.
Electric Infra
Electricity demand is growing faster than GDP, which itself grows faster than overall energy demand. EM economic development, the massification of EVs across the developed world and China, and the renewal of an ageing grid in advanced economies should keep this gap open for years.
The AI revolution is strong in the US and consumes a lot of energy. Forecasts for data-centre electricity demand vary across sources, but converge on a marked increase through 2030.
The Commission is moving to cut dependency on fossil fuels and accelerate electrification: an escape clause shielding electrification capex from deficit calculations, a draft cutting taxes on renewables, and a mechanism to securitise ETS to fund the transition.
German Stimulus
Three levers carry the stimulus: defence spending beyond 1% of GDP, financed off-budget with no set ceiling; a 12-year, €500bn special fund for transport, energy and digital; and tax relief plus a €15/hour minimum wage. In total, Germany plans to borrow €850bn over 2025–29.
The approved federal budget confirms record investment: €115.7bn in 2025 and €123.6bn in 2026 — up 55% versus 2024 — sustained near €120bn a year through 2029. Defence rises from €95bn (2.4% of GDP) to circa €162bn (3.5%) by 2029, with over €100bn earmarked for rail.
Nuclear
Meeting net zero targets will require more and cleaner power for many activities: green buildings, clean transportation, digitalization… In terms of CO₂ emissions, nuclear is one of the cleanest sources of electricity production (12g/kWh).
Support is broadening fast: the EU taxonomy, the US Inflation Reduction Act and the COP-28 pledge to triple capacity by 2050, now backed by 22 governments.
Small modular reactors are built to one standardised design in a factory, not engineered bespoke on-site. Standardised, factory-built SMRs open a new, cost-competitive addressable market.
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